Water FractalTier 2
at GGA Abyssal Heaven Regional
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
2-7-0
overall winrate
22.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.5%
avg ELO -8.6 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1230
· median 1230
· range 1215–1244
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1208
Q3 1365
1446
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.7 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Wind Polkhawk | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
